By Jeff Marchesseault

GUAM - An update to a year-2000 Rand Corporation war game study reveals through simulation the competitive power of a much stronger China -- and the increasing value of U.S. defense basing on Guam and throughout the Pacific, especially in light of the superiority of the advanced weapons deployed here.

The update comes nine years after an initial study had found that "'any near-term Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan would likely be a very bloody affair with a significant probability of failure', especially if the U.S. raced to the island nation's defense."

According to Wired Magazine, newer Rand data shows "China's improved air and missile forces 'represent clear and impending dangers to the defense of Taiwan,' whether or not the U.S. is involved."

The 'Game Changer'

However, Wired says that Rand has also observed "that F-22s flying from the relative safety of Guam could be surprisingly effective in blunting a Chinese air assault."

A May 2009 Pacific Air Forces article chronicling the arrival of a contingency of 12 F-22 Raptors from Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam explains why.

Lt. Col. Charles Corcoran, 525th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron Commander, describes the Defense Department's most advanced fighter plane's superiority:

Colonel Corcoran said the four factors that make the F-22 so special are its stealth, speed, integrated avionics and maneuverability. These traits, built into the fifth-generation Raptor from day one, clearly separate it from the pack.

"I've seen the jet perform like no other airplane that the world has ever known," he said. "It truly is a game changer as far as gaining control of the skies. I flew the F-15 for many, many years. It's a great airplane. It's undefeated in combat. It can't hold a candle to the F-22."

Twin-Point Superiority

The Rand report identifying regional Chinese air strength also reportedly uncovers potential Chinese vulnerability to twin points of American superiority -- one in the sea and yet another in the sky.

Although Rand finds that the sheer volume of communist Chinese planes would be enough to overwhelm U.S. and Taiwan forces now in the Pacific, Wired points out that the study is limited to an air war that only cursorily factors in two of the most lethal weapons in the U.S. arsenal -- bombers and nuclear subs.

Wired illustrates:

...RAND admits that successful attacks by just four U.S. B-1B bombers could also disable the invasion fleet...The RAND study glosses over, in a single footnote, the force that would really play the biggest role in halting a Chinese invasion: the U.S. Navy's huge, lethal fleet of nuclear submarines.

The Fire Down Below

Offering support to Wired's pronouncement, the synopsis to a May-June 2009 series of stories titled "Sword of Freedom" appearing on the website warisboring.com hints at the awesome dismantling power of modern U.S. subs:

Unseen and unheralded, the U.S. Navy's roughly 50 nuclear attack submarines comprise the silent vanguard of our conventional naval power at sea. While speedy corvettes, shallow-water transports and aviation-capable amphibious ships are vital for exploiting the peace - that is, building new alliances and exporting security abroad - submarines are the most important ships for keeping the peace - that is, deterring major aggression. For no other naval weapon rivals the submarine's potential for massive, surprise destruction.

Perhaps this capacity for undetectable force is no better illustrated than in this United States Naval Academy description:

Strike Warfare
A relatively new mission for the United States Submarine Force, strike warfare has become a cornerstone of the force. The addition of the Submarine launched Tomahawk missile has made an already potent weapons platform even more devastating. The range of the Tomahawk allows the submarine to strike deep into any potential adversary's territory, while the stealth of the submarine allows the U.S. to preposition a solid weapons load without pre-alerting the adversary. Most submarines are capable of firing the tube launched variant of the Tomahawk, but the latest Los Angeles class submarines are equipped with 12 vertical launch missiles.

According to Wikipedia, Naval Base Guam now home-ports three Los Angeles class nuclear submarines.

Sufficient Force

Then, for air assault capability, there are the high number of operational F-22 at the war strategist's fingertips. Although Congress and the Obama Administration have halted funding for further development of the F-22 Raptor program for the time being, 186 F-22s still remain in the U.S. Air Force fleet.

Lately, Guam's Andersen Air Force Base has been the forward-deployed home of as many as a dozen stealthy F-22 Raptors whose pilots have been participating in successful regional war games during actual flight training.

Supporting the strategic positioning of these advanced weapons systems on Guam, Aviation Week's August 4th peer into the now-unfolding U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review suggests that the nation's current air defense configuration is seen as sufficient to fend off aggression in both East Asia and the Middle East simultaneously. In talking to Aviation Week, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Planning David Ochmanek expressed confidence in the QDR's latest findings:

Asked about his assessment of U.S. military might if the QDR recommendations are adopted, Ochmanek replied, "I think there will be enough forces to handle a war on the Korean peninsula and against Iran at the same time."

"You don't need F-22 for both simultaneous wars-just the biggest one," Ochmanek says. "With programmed modernization of the rest of the force-specifically the F-35-it is deemed adequate to deal with other regional threats. The judgment was made that the mix was adequate."

Sizing Up The Basin

The Department of Defense operates bases and installations up and down the U.S. west coast, as well as in Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, Okinawa, and South Korea, and maintains vital operations and alliances throughout the Pacific and Asia. The U.S. also wields the world's most sophisticated weapons -- and constantly practices and interfaces with them to improve expertise, cultivate knowledge and improve upon the design and functionality of these tools of the trade so that they are optimized for the most practical and effective use in fighting aggression and keeping peace throughout the world and within the region.

Furthermore the Defense Department sees fit to place these weapons and the highly trained servicemembers who operate them in the right places at the right time in capacities that are adequate to the task at hand -- whether readiness or war.

While informed simulations or war games are helpful in testing 'us against them' scenarios, it is also important not to underestimate the tradition of advancing technology that has helped enable the United States to overcome force volume with a combination of strategic thinking, smart weaponry, and constant honing and training to keep more American and allied soldiers out of harm's way while helping protect freedom in our world.

An American Territory In Asia

Guam's place in the Pacific Theater of U.S. Defense operations is special not only for its geographical juxtaposition between Tokyo and Melborne at the U.S. defensive vanguard of Asia. It is also valuable because of its distinctive American identity in the region.

It is an identity that has unflinchingly upheld the principles of freedom and democracy and the American rule of law that supports these ideals since before the Second World War. Sixty-five years ago the Battle of Guam engulfed the island in a crucible of blood, tears and flames that only hardened its resolve to remain American.

Through peace and peril, as a tried and true member of the American political family, Guam has demonstrated a constant and unflappable loyalty to the United States. This tradition of exceptional patriotism is exhibited in Guam's high rates of military enlistment and ultimate sacrifice; in its love of freedom and democracy upheld at every election; and in its embracement of the rule of law and free-market economics. All of this despite an unmatched distance from the states among American territories.

It all amounts to an indelible Americanism which the Department of Defense and the troops it stations on Guam can and should appreciate for many years to come as the vast expansion of military installations and operations shifts into high gear and Guam becomes all the more relevant a player in the pan-Pacific defense community.

Read the Wired Magazine story, "Think Tank: China Beats U.S. in Simulated Taiwan Air War", August 5, 2009.

Read the Aviation Week article, "QDR Is Beginning To Show Results", August 4, 2009.

Read the WarIsBoring.com series, "Sword Of Freedom", May-June 2009.

Read the Pacific Air Forces article, "525th deploys for first time since reactivation", May 20, 2009.

Read the U.S. Naval Academy description of Fast Attack Submarines.

Read the Wikipedia description of Naval Base Guam.

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