Japanese Democrats Swagger As Election Draws Near

By Jeff Marchesseault

GUAM - If you thought post-election Japan was just going to roll over and follow the U.S. lead in matters of foregin policy, now is a good time to reconsider your thinking.

It's also a good time to consider how the diplomacy of a more independent-minded Japan will affect the realignment of U.S. military forces from Okinawa to Guam -- over the next year, and throughout the ensuing decade.

Still Simmering

No, this issue hasn't gone away. If anything, in the less than two weeks before a nationwide election that is expected to topple the 50-year reign of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the promise of self-guided Japanese foreign affairs has held firm.

Still favored to sweep elections on August 30th, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) may have toned down some of its more vitriolic rhetoric about the status of U.S. forces in the nation and Japan's assistive role in the defense of the region. But you can bet that a DPJ-led government will be more critical of U.S. foreign policiy initiatives that involve Japan.

A recent analysis in the Huffington Post quotes an outspoken DPJ Secretary-General, committed to redefining the way Japan deals with the U.S. and the world:

"There are various issues of concern between Japan and the U.S.," the DPJ's second in command, Katsuya Okada, said recently. "If Japan just  follows what the U.S. says, then I think as a sovereign nation that is pathetic."

Tightening The Purse Strings On Guam

Chief among those concerns is a military buildup on Guam that is part of a bigger realignment of forces between here and Okinawa.

According to HuffPost's Monday analysis, "the real potential for friction centers on the fate of thousands of U.S. Marines based on Okinawa."

The HuffPost piece goes on to reiterate what's been suspected for months: that under DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, who is favored for the Prime Minister's seat in the upcoming election, Japan would seek to draw down its monetary commitment to the reduction of forces in Okinawa. Here is an excerpt from the Huffington Post analysis illustrating the situation:

Well over a decade of delicate negotiations to reduce the American military footprint on the island culminated in a compromise that will see 8,000 Marines transferred to Guam by 2014 and the Marines' Futenma airbase, in the overcrowded city of Ginowan, relocated to Okinawa's west coast.

Again, the luxury of opposition has allowed the DPJ to skirt questions about the strength of its commitment to the biggest realignment of U.S. troops in Japan for decades.

While it has fallen silent on a previous commitment to conduct a "sweeping review" of the realignment plan in response to growing opposition to the new base, a Hatoyama administration is expected at least to seek a reduction in Japan's contribution to the $10 billion Guam relocation, of which it's paying just above 60 percent.

U.S. military officials bristle at the prospect of a new Japanese government wobbling over realignment.

The Glimmer Of Reason

Still, even with the likely emergence of a more-robust and sovereign Japanese diplomacy, there may be some hope for reasonableness, as the DPJ splits with the more directly US-aligned LDP's way of handling foreign affairs.

Two weeks ago, Okada told Reuters:

"We have our own way of thinking and of course (policies) must reflect the interests of Japan and the Japanese people," he added. "But because U.S.-Japan relations are extremely important for Japan's national interests, we should consider how we can make U.S.-Japan relations, the U.S.-Japan alliance, more fruitful. So our way of thinking is completely different."

Read the Huffington Post analysis, "Japanese Elections Could Reconfigure Japan-U.S. Alliance: Analysis", August 17, 2009.

Read the Guam News Factor analysis, "New York Times: 'Flash Points Remain' Over Guam And Okinawa", July 28, 2009.

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Name: Email:  do not notifynotify Website: Title: UBBCode:         -color-aquablackbluefuchsiagraygreenlimemaroonnavyolivepurpleredsilvertealwhiteyellow -size-tinysmallmediumlargehuge     Please input the anti-spam code that you can read in the image.

OneTimeGunner  - Double Talk   |2009-08-19 17:41:20 Ok, they lost the war and caused trouble all over. Then they begged the victors to get out and said they will pay. Wait, no way, we don't to pay. What the? Who the #^*&*& do they think we are? Cough it up and shut up. Reply | Quote 1   0

Otanu  - Mr. Otanu   |2009-08-20 08:24:10 I hope we do not have a serious problem. These guys are ready to undo anything. But, I think they will not get into powerful enough position to do it. Reply | Quote 0   0

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