Tokyo Yields After Joint-Chiefs Chairman Presses Foreign Minister

By Jeff Marchesseault

GUAM - The news comes as welcome relief to military officials and anyone on Guam who's followed the drama unfolding in Tokyo this week. After remaining noncommittal during U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit and exasperating the State Department, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan has finally given the OK to transfer the operations of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to another part of Okinawa, instead of banishing the insallation altogether. To the satisfaction of the Pentagon and all who have a stake in the $15 billion Guam buildup, this may mean that plans can proceed on Guam as scheduled. But not necessarily.

Releasing Tension And Shoring Up Threats

Eight thousand Okinawa-based U.S. Marines and their thousands of dependents are slated to migrate to the U.S. Territory between 2010 and 2014 as part of a 2006 bilateral accord to lighten the heavy America troop burden borne by Japan and to bolster America's Pacific line of defense as a counterbalance to a growing Chinese navy and an increasingly militant North Korea.

Unsettling Questions Remain

But it's not yet entirely evident  whether Japan's renewed commitment to keep the air base in Okinawa will present any time-delaying details. For starters, Japan has yet to say whether the area adjacent to Camp Schwab in Nago will serve as the new air base site, as originally agreed to three years ago when the anti-air base DPJ was still an out-of-power opposition party.

The Associated Press reports today that the Nago plan could give way to a new initiative to move Futenma ops to Kadena Air Base, also in Okinawa. Yesterday, news surfaced that the U.S. would have to wait until sometime after President Obama's November 12-13 Tokyo visit to read the DPJ's air base counterproposal. But Japan's new premier, Yukio Hatoyama, said even the Obama visit will present no deadline for a new plan on Tokyo's part.

The Force Of Reason

News today that Japan is at least committed to keeping the base somewhere within Okinawa comes after Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen's visit with Japan Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada in Tokyo on Friday. Mullen backed Secretary Gates' insistence that the Futenma replacement must remain within Okinawa.

Yesterday, the Admiral made it abundantly clear why existing transfer timetables are so crucial for the Pentagon, which has involved hundreds of thousands of stakeholders from contractors and employees to servicemembers and the people of Guam.

According to the AP, Mullen told reporters, "We're barely on track with what was laid out in 2006. When you start falling behind, you don't fall behind by days, you start falling behind exponentially."

Okada conceded. And the AP hints at the new administration's fundamental understanding that despite longstanding frustration with the noise, crowding, pollution and crime often associated with American troops in Okinawa (especially around Futenma), the bottomline benefits for locals may far outweigh the drawbacks when it comes to protection and economics:

"Starting from scratch on other ideas would not serve the best interests of the people of Okinawa," Okada said.

A Fly In The Ointment

But he added a comment that is in line with a new Japanese rhetoric that is more defiant toward the United States, even in the face of longstanding accords. This tone may satisfy the egos of the new party in power while maintaining its domestic image as a reformer bent on building a more-autonomous, less-American diplomacy focused on advancing the interests of a sovereign Asian nation seeking regional alliances other than the U.S.

But in light of the 15 years it took to broker the 2006 accord that set Futenma relocation and the Guam buildup in motion, this peculiar brand of tough talk also presents a disturbing break with the traditional Japanese sense of honor.

The AP reports:

"I don't think we have any disputes or serious problems between us," Okada said after meeting Mullen. "There is no need to overreact. I believe that the United States understands that we cannot simply accept everything just because an agreement is already made."

And it is exactly this tactic of painting America as the worry wart and keeping one's cards close to the vest while spoon-feeding information only when it suits the supposed best interests of the DPJ that could well keep Washington, contractors and the people of Guam on the edges of their seats until the new Okinawa air base site is decided and announced. And America should be biting its nails to the quick. Too much is at stake to take Tokyo's one-upsmanship lightly.

A Bark Worse Than Its Bite

But don't let the cool front fool you. Under the veneer of control lies a deep-seeded awareness and palpable concern that if Japan overplays its hand, it could find itself a measure less favored and a measure less protected by the world's only remaining super power -- as it sits a bit more bereft of our friendship, just off the coast of a rising communist force in the Far Eastern mainland.

Read the Associated Press report, "Japan FM: Marine base should stay in Okinawa", October 24, 2009.

Read the Wall Street Journal story, "Japan Shows Some Flexibility on U.S. Deployments",October 23, 2009.

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